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Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2001 07:25:53 -0800 (PST)
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Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Dec 21, 2001
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 Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com       Sales:  713.228.4407   Deve=
lopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Sui=
te 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of=
 Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would l=
ike to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy=
 at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_T=
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@syncrasy.com     Data last updated: Friday, Dec 21, 2001 at 07:35AM EST   =
 Commentary last updated: Friday, Dec 21, 2001 at 09:19AM EST  Meteorologis=
t: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote    Congratulations Andy Weinga=
rten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal=
 Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquila  =
 New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe Acrobat Readerto=
 open or print a PDF)  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximu=
m Temperature'     Today: Friday, December 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  D=
elta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
(Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +3 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRC=
C(SE) 69 +1 MAAC(NE) 42 +2 MAIN(CTR) 41 +3 MAPP(HP) 36 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SE=
RC(SE) 57 +1 SPP(SP) 59 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC    =
 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea=
n 35 36 34 36 31 54 59 47 Max 40 41 37 40 40 62 66 53 Min 31 31 31 34 27 49=
 55 44 Range 9 10 6 6 13 13 11 9 StD-P 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.7 Coun=
t 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi=
n the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Legitimate cold air poised=
 to move into the U.S. the last week of the year. Some models also hint at =
significant winter storminess next week as well.   The next system should s=
tart cranking up over SE Colorado today and track towards the Great Lakes t=
his weekend. This will still be more of a rain than snow event, but finally=
 is the catalyst to really show the pattern change. As the storm exits in t=
he East, a strong ridge builds on the West coast up into Canada which force=
s polar air South. High latitude blocking then keeps the polar air in place=
. The Midwest is the first recipient of this and it then spreads East into =
next week. We are rapidly losing the positive temperature departures. They =
should be gone all together East of the Rockies by Christmas. Of course the=
y will be growing under the ridge West o! f the Rockies. Negative departure=
s should become more prominent next week under this polar vortex. They will=
 show up more in daytime highs rather than night time lows. I don't expect =
heavy precipitation in the short term from this, but persistent cloudiness =
and wind will add to the chill.    Tomorrow: Saturday, December 22, 2001   =
Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I=
MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +=
2 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRCC(SE) 73 +1 MAAC(NE) 41 +1 MAIN(CTR) 45 +2 MAPP(HP) 31=
 +2 NPCC(NE) 34 +1 SERC(SE) 58 +1 SPP(SP) 50 -1 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 24 =
-2 WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP =
NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 30 31 37 24 57 60 47 Max 43 40 37 40 39 62 64 53 =
Min 38 22 26 33 16 53 56 42 Range 5 18 11 7 23 9 8 11 StD-P 1.2 3.3 3.6 1.9=
 4.9 2.5 2.4 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weathe=
r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Sunday, December 23, =
2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I=
MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CT=
R) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 55 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 48 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +4 MAPP=
(HP) 20 NC NPCC(NE) 42 +2 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 36 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(=
RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 52 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg=
 CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 23 38 37 22 59 48 48 Max 41 29 44 40 29 61=
 63 52 Min 30 17 34 32 12 57 36 42 Range 11 12 10 8 17 4 27 10 StD-P 3.0 3.=
3 2.2 2.1 4.5 1.1 6.1 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Ea=
ch Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Monday, Dec=
ember 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]=
   ECAR(CTR) 35 +3 ERCOT(SP) 50 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 47 +4 MAIN(CTR) =
26 NC MAPP(HP) 15 -3 NPCC(NE) 42 +2 SERC(SE) 51 +1 SPP(SP) 37 -4 WSCC(NW) 3=
7 -3 WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IM=
AGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 21 42 35 21 51 42 47 Max 32 27 4=
5 40 30 59 51 52 Min 22 15 38 30 9 46 33 41 Range 10 12 7 10 21 13 18 11 St=
D-P 2.8 3.4 2.2 3.7 5.8 4.2 5.4 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Her=
eto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: T=
uesday, December 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matr=
ix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge=
)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 +1 ERCOT(SP) 48 -5 FRCC(SE) 68 +2 MAAC(NE) 42 +3=
 MAIN(CTR) 20 -2 MAPP(HP) 9 -5 NPCC(NE) 41 +5 SERC(SE) 46 +1 SPP(SP) 29 -6 =
WSCC(NW) 35 -6 WSCC(RK) 22 -9 WSCC(SW) 51 -4     Range Standard Deviation [=
IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 17 37 33 18 47 40 46 M=
ax 25 26 45 37 30 56 48 52 Min 17 8 29 27 3 41 29 40 Range 8 18 16 10 27 15=
 19 12 StD-P 2.4 4.8 4.3 3.6 7.4 4.1 5.7 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 =
Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   =
 Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day period shows the polar vortex locked in=
to place over the Great Lakes. It is also possible that Southern jet stream=
 energy will undercut this polar air spinning up a winter storm in the Sout=
h that could head up the East Coast. This storm is clearly in the speculati=
ve stages and should be watched. But, the cold is not speculative, it is re=
al. I am very confident in the evolution of this at long last. It appears t=
o be a fairly long lasting event, the question now is how long and how seve=
re. One extreme example of how strong this potential may be down the road w=
as a report earlier this week that record high barometric pressure readings=
 were approached in Mongolia. The center of this Siberian high had a pressu=
re of around 32.00" of mercury. The temperature at the time of the reading =
was 41 below zero. Most of the ! models on a hemispheric scale are now lini=
ng up the surface highs from the U.S. Northwest to the Pole. The Canadian m=
odel in particular shows some very frigid air in the NW territories on its =
Day 10 depiction. If this trend continues, it could be extremely cold early=
 in 2002.  Note: This is my final weather commentary until January 2'nd of =
2002. Best wishes for a happy holiday season.     Day 6: Wednesday, Decembe=
r 26, 2001  Click Herefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's =
Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 27 -1 ERCOT(SP)=
 45 -9 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 40 +4 MAIN(CTR) 20 -3 MAPP(HP) 12 -5 NPCC(NE=
) 38 +6 SERC(SE) 45 +1 SPP(SP) 28 -9 WSCC(NW) 35 -5 WSCC(RK) 21 -10 WSCC(SW=
) 51 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK S=
E SP SW Mean 19 17 34 33 16 44 38 46 Max 25 26 39 37 27 50 46 52 Min 14 9 2=
9 28 -1 39 27 40 Range 11 17 10 9 28 11 19 12 StD-P 3.2 4.6 3.7 3.3 8.7 4.0=
 6.5 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used =
Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Thursday, December 27, 2001   Syncras=
y's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [=
IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 29 NC ERCOT=
(SP) 48 -8 FRCC(SE) 69 +5 MAAC(NE) 36 NC MAIN(CTR) 25 NC MAPP(HP) 13 -4 NPC=
C(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 46 NC SPP(SP) 33 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 23 -6 WSCC=
(SW) 50 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW R=
K SE SP SW Mean 19 18 29 34 19 43 38 46 Max 25 25 33 39 28 50 48 52 Min 14 =
10 25 28 5 37 26 37 Range 11 15 8 11 23 13 22 15 StD-P 3.6 4.2 2.8 3.4 7.4 =
3.9 7.0 4.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Us=
ed Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Friday, December 28, 2001   Syncr=
asy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
 [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 17 -2 ERC=
OT(SP) 38 -3 FRCC(SE) 63 +3 MAAC(NE) 22 -1 MAIN(CTR) 13 -2 MAPP(HP) 9 +1 NP=
CC(NE) 23 +3 SERC(SE) 34 -3 SPP(SP) 19 -6 WSCC(NW) 28 -2 WSCC(RK) 4 -9 WSCC=
(SW) 42 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW R=
K SE SP SW Mean 20 18 28 35 19 44 41 49 Max 25 25 32 42 29 50 49 54 Min 14 =
9 22 28 4 38 34 42 Range 11 16 10 14 25 12 15 12 StD-P 3.7 5.0 3.8 4.0 8.2 =
3.8 5.4 4.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Us=
ed Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Saturday, December 29, 2001   Sync=
rasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE=
] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 17 NC ER=
COT(SP) 35 -9 FRCC(SE) 54 -8 MAAC(NE) 22 -2 MAIN(CTR) 16 +2 MAPP(HP) 10 +3 =
NPCC(NE) 25 +3 SERC(SE) 30 -5 SPP(SP) 20 -2 WSCC(NW) 30 +4 WSCC(RK) 9 +5 WS=
CC(SW) 46 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW=
 RK SE SP SW Mean 20 18 28 35 21 41 39 50 Max 25 26 33 42 29 49 50 55 Min 1=
5 9 23 28 10 35 31 45 Range 10 17 10 14 19 14 19 10 StD-P 4.1 5.7 3.7 4.3 7=
.0 4.6 6.6 3.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast=
 Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Sunday, December 30, 2001   S=
yncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM=
AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 19 +1=
 ERCOT(SP) 37 +2 FRCC(SE) 53 -1 MAAC(NE) 25 NC MAIN(CTR) 14 -1 MAPP(HP) 8 -=
2 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 31 -1 SPP(SP) 22 +5 WSCC(NW) 35 +11 WSCC(RK) 13 +=
10 WSCC(SW) 49 +13     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP=
 NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 17 14 27 34 14 35 31 43 Max 21 20 33 35 21 39 34 48=
 Min 14 11 22 31 7 30 25 36 Range 7 9 11 4 14 9 9 12 StD-P 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.8 =
2.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around an=
d formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   T=
rader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.c=
omor www.truequote.com   [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09

